Southern Africa: 2020 Vision
Introduction
On the 24th and the 25th of August 2009, a conference took place in Windhoek,
Namibia with the title: Southern Africa: 2020 Vision. Public Policy Priorities
for the Next Decade. The conference brought together academics, civil society
activists, politicians and business people from Namibia, South Africa and
Europe to consider topics in four areas: economic development, healthcare, democracy
and governance, and legal and civil rights.
Speakers were encouraged to use a scenario-based approach to bring a focus
to their presentations and the ensuing discussions. Speakers were asked to assess
likely developments and outcomes in their area of expertise over the next
ten years, including assumptions about resource allocation, the quality of governance
and the development of infrastructure. Through discussion the conference
aimed to identify areas of consensus and areas of disagreement, both with
regard to the aims of public policy and with regard to the relative priorities that
should be accorded to policy in different areas.
The conference was a great success, not least in its impact with the local media.
The second day began with the organizers drawing attention to the front
page of The Namibian, the largest-circulation English language newspaper in
the country, which reported on a number of the presentations from the first session
of the conference on the previous day. Press coverage continued for some
days, in the principal English, German and Afrikaans language papers, the best
examples of which are collected in the Appendix to this volume.
Throughout both days of the conference, speakers addressed matters of central
importance to Namibia and the wider region in frank and open way. There
were some sharp questions and some lively discussions among the conference
participants at each session, but all took place within a positive framework. This
volume reprints all but one of the papers presented at the conference, in the
order in which they were given.
Economic Development
The first session of the conference focused on economic development and, very
appropriately, was opened by Peter Katjavivi, Director General of the National
Planning Commission, Windhoek. In his helpful and open assessment of the
current state of development in Namibia, Katjavivi emphasizes both the promising
achievements of the post-independence years with regard to economic
growth, but also the grave inequalities of participation in, and benefit from,
that growth. Furthermore, as he points out, Namibia's future economic prospects
are vulnerable to major exogenous events, such as the current slowdown
in world economic growth and the threats posed by climate change. For these
reasons, notwithstanding the priorities of the Namibian government, the country's
future economic prospects remain uncertain.
Katjavivi's paper is followed by Vekuii Rukoro, a leader of the Namibian
financial community, who elegantly illustrates some of the tensions between
regional integration and national sovereignty, from the perspective of his experience
within the banking sector. Rukoro argues that Southern Africa needs
to develop an integrated business and political agenda for the region, if it is to
operate successfully on the world stage, and not simply remain prey to external
competitive forces. He also has some words of caution about the relationship
between Namibia and China, and the need for the Namibia government to
abandon any naivety in its dealings with foreign governments, whether they be
former colonial powers or former allies in the liberation struggle.
The third paper in this section, by Henning Melber, returns to the theme of
inequality in Namibia. Melber is trenchant in highlighting the role of political
and economic elites across Southern Africa in the development of economic
policy, and the pitfalls of growing dependence on extraction industries and
tourism. Like Rukoro, Melber calls for a regionally defined and owned strategy,
but in his case he emphasizes that such a strategy is needed not just for business,
but for benefit of the poorer members of society, whose interests are often overlooked.
Without this, he warns, the region is more likely to see declines, rather
than gains, in the economic well-being of the majority of the population.
The final paper in this session was delivered by Calle Schlettwein, Permanent
Secretary at the Ministry of Finance. Schlettwein begins by describing the
innovative new system of programme, or output budgeting used by the Namibian
Treasury, outlining aspects of the impressive success Namibia has had
in meeting its goals to date. He warns, though, that development throughout
the broader region is threatened not just by economic dependency but, more
insidiously, by intellectual dependency, in the sense of adopting models and solutions
introduced by outside donors and international agencies. Namibia has
attempted to resist both, by ensuring, for example, that high priority projects
are funded not by donors but by the Namibian government itself. He concludes
by setting out a series of recommendations for development in the region.
Healthcare
The second session of the conference concerned issues relating to health and
healthcare and begins with Anne Johnson's account of priorities for healthcare
for the coming decade. Johnson highlights the very limited progress that
has been made with respect to health improvement in Southern Africa, and,
indeed, the fact that challenges such as that from HIV/AIDS have reversed
recent health gains. Johnson also points to the problems caused by what she
calls 'vertical' programmes to address health problems, which are particularly
focused on a single disease. While it is understandable that donors and
international organizations would seek to focus their efforts in this way, the
effect has often been that, by attracting health workers from other parts of
the health system, vertical programmes can have a seriously adverse effect
on health systems as a whole, thereby undermining such things as maternal
care and public health. Johnson recommends that in future donors and
international organizations re-focus on 'horizontal' programmes, that is
programmes that strengthen health systems as a whole. Such a change will
also be needed if countries in Southern Africa are to be able to deal with the
changing pattern of disease associated with economic development, such as
increases in obesity and heart disease.
Markus Haacker continues the argument by documenting the progression of
HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa, and its macro-economic consequences, including
the very different spending levels on HIV/AIDS in different countries of
the region. Very surprisingly, Haacker finds that the macro-economic effects of
HIV/AIDS are nothing like as severe as its social effects, and, indeed, there is
no evidence that the epidemic has had a discernible effect on economic growth.
He suggests that the reason for this is that growth in the economies of Southern
Africa is highly dependent on a small number of industries, such as mining,
which employ a very small part of the potential work force. Wealthy companies
are better able to manage the health of their workers and, in extremis, workers
who become too sick to work can simply be replaced by others, drawn from the
large pool of labour outside of the mainstream economy.
Finally in this section David Lush describes the HIV/AIDS epidemic from the
perspective of someone who has been living with HIV since 1990, and who experienced
firsthand the responses of a medical profession that found itself confronted
by a disease that it could not cure. Lush argues that the profession has
treated people living with HIV (PLWHIV) as 'living under a death sentence'. It
has regarded them as incapable of taking care of their own health and, instead
has treated them as being in need of 'control' for the sake of public health. Such
an uncomprehending approach contrasts with the constructive response of
PLWHIV who, through their own efforts, communication and organization,
have come to understand how to manage their own health, with the help of
the medical profession but not at their command. The healthcare system also
needs to take a more inclusive attitude towards health workers who are themselves
living with HIV. Lush is now a health activist, helping to develop support
groups that work, to some degree, in partnership with the medical profession;
a hard won, but highly beneficial outcome.
Democracy and Governance
The third session begins with a series of introductory questions by Monica
Koep, the Chair of the Institute for Public Policy Research, and a local consultant
on civil society and governance issues.
This is followed by a paper from Steven Gruzd, who discusses the African
Peer Review Mechanism. Gruzd explains the roots of the APRM, as an
African initiative to promote better governance for Africa once the decolonisation
process was finally completed in the 1990s. As Gruzd points out, independence
needed to be followed by improvements in political participation
and decision-making, as well as by economic development. The peer-review
mechanism itself is based on an extensive self-assessment questionnaire, and
followed by a procedure of review and report. It is a unique process, which
aims for transparency and which holds Heads of States up to public scrutiny
by their peers. Perhaps for this reason, however, those countries that have
agreed to go through the peer review process have tended to be the most
stable and successful. Namibia has, to date, chosen not to participate in the
Review process.
André du Pisani raises the question of the prospects for liberal democracy
outside of those countries that participated in the Enlightenment and thus hold
a range of Enlightenment beliefs and values. In the case of Africa, the diverse
cultural, historical and political factors that have influenced the drive to democracy
have led to a variety of democratic forms and experiences, including cases
where democracy has been imposed from outside. As a result not all attempts
to introduce democracy have taken root and 'democratic reversals' have been
experienced in a number of countries in the region. Du Pisani argues that in
the coming years we are likely to see a continuation of uneven democratic development,
which raises the question of whether the standard model of liberal
democracy is the best way forward for the development needs of the peoples of
the region.
The final paper in the third session by Justine Hunter and Theunis Keulder,
both of the Namibia Institute for Democracy, looks at the role of Non-Governmental
Organizations (NGOs) in Namibia. Currently there are around 460 Namibian
NGOs, a large number considering the small population of the country,
although some of these are very small and virtually inactive; perhaps only 25-30
operate at any scale, many funded by external donors. The health sector, for
obvious reasons, has seen a substantial rise in activity in recent years. Hunter
and Keulder provide a comprehensive picture of the situation in Namibia, focusing
on the activities of NGOs and their relationship with government. While
in many respects the picture is encouraging, it is also fragile. Many NGOs are,
in effect, elite organization reliant on donor funding; they are not grassroots
organizations growing out of popular movements. This is a problem both in
itself and for the sustainability of civil society, and many other challenges for
the sector are documented here. As democracy relies on a vibrant civil society,
especially where the ruling party faces little effective political competition, it is
vital that the NGO sector is maintained and strengthened.
Legal and Civil Rights
The fourth and final session, on Legal and Civil Rights, contains two papers,
the first of which, by Nico Horn and Isabella Skeffers, is a remarkable account of
the fight against corruption in Namibia. Historically this was not helped by the
weak legal framework on this issue, until the passing of the Anti-Corruption Act
of 2003. Before this Act only public officials could be found guilty of bribery and
sanctions were very limited. The new Act is a great improvement, yet, argue
Horn and Skeffers, contains limitations. Unlike the parallel South African act,
on which the Namibian Act was modelled, it omits special provisions regarding
corrupt offences for members of the legislative authority, judicial officers and
prosecuting authority. Accordingly the authors argue that while much progress
has been made in setting out a legislative framework to tackle corruption in
Namibia, much more work remains to be done.
The final paper in this volume, by Joram Rukambe, considers political and
electoral rights in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.
There are many positive signs and indicators concerning the embedding
of democratic process and political freedom. For example, Rukambe notes that
there are no journalists currently in prison in the SADC region. On the other
hand, state interference in the media may be on the increase in some countries.
For the future, Rukambe argues that the influence of 'liberation politics' will
fade, the concern for good governance will rise, and information technology
will improve democratic processes. Yet all of this could be derailed by economic
crisis or by a turn to more violent political processes. A co-operative 'walking
together' scenario is possible, although it is not, unfortunately, the only option.
Final Thoughts
Do conferences such as this make a difference? It would be easy to be sceptical
about their value and it is therefore reasonable to ask whether and how they
make a meaningful contribution to beneficial change. Indeed, this topic is the
subject of a short "Commentary" piece by Eberhard Hofmann, published in the
Allgemeine Zeitung of 28th August 2009, which is reprinted in the Appendix to
this volume.
Yet, as Hofmann himself observes,
It remains essential for the development of the complex Namibian
society that the public discourse on burning issues is kept alive, always
anew and with the indispensable sharpness in the encounter between
politicians and the (academic) civil society.
It is just this public discourse that the organizers set out to promote at the
Southern Africa: 2020 Vision conference. The aim was to facilitate an encounter
between politicians, academics and civil society representatives, from
Southern Africa and from Europe, to promote discussion and debate that are
constructive and educative. We believe we were successful. There are no easy
answers, but this volume identifies many of the hurdles and suggests ways of
building on existing initiatives that might move Namibia, and the wider region,
in the direction its own people wish to take it.
Taken together, the papers in this volume provide an extraordinarily rich
account of the current state of, and challenges for, the region, and especially for
Namibia. Namibia is a success story: it is politically stable, with a functioning
democracy and a growing economy. Yet it remains a highly unequal society and
its political and economic successes have not been evenly shared. Over the next
decade the main challenge is to address such inequalities, not simply by redistribution,
but by putting in place structures that will continue to spread political
and economic benefits to the population as a whole.
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